Women's Super League predictions: Arsenal take on Man City as basement battle heats up

Another week and another jam-packed schedule of Women's Super League action awaits, with matchday 13 full of enticing clashes at both ends of the table. 

The latest round of fixtures saw Chelsea tighten their grip on top spot after leaving it late to down Arsenal, but Manchester United remain on their tails after sweeping aside Brighton to continue their excellent run of form. 

Manchester City recovered from their damaging derby defeat by edging a six-goal thriller against Aston Villa, while the battle at the bottom took another twist with Leicester City picking up just their second win of the season against Liverpool. 

Everton withstood a wave of endless West Ham pressure to boost their own survival hopes, while Crystal Palace were denied a point in the closing stages versus Tottenham.

Just five points separate the bottom four in the division, with the matches this weekend perhaps proving pivotal in the fight against relegation.

The anticipation for another intriguing weekend of matches continues to build, but what does the Opta supercomputer predict will take place on Sunday?

MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL

The weekend's action kicks off at the Joie Stadium, with Arsenal looking to respond from their defeat to league leaders Chelsea when they travel to Manchester City.

City themselves hit back from their derby day defeat to Manchester United with a 4-2 victory over Aston Villa, with Vivianne Miedema scoring twice to keep Gareth Taylor's faint hopes of winning the title this season alive. 

And the Citizens are expected to continue their winning momentum against the Gunners this weekend, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 45.6% chance of victory to Arsenal's 27.6%. A draw is given a likelihood of 26.8%. 

But recent fixtures suggest that Arsenal could even be favourites. City have won just one of their last seven meetings with the Gunners in the WSL (D2 L4), a 2-1 home victory back in February 2023.  

However, the Citizens have been imperious on home turf. They have won 12 of their last 14 WSL home games (L2), though they did lose last time out at home to United. City haven’t lost back-to-back league games on their own soil since November 2021 (three in a row).

Arsenal, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last four WSL games against City (W3 D1), the only team currently on an unbeaten run longer than one game against the Citizens. 

Though the Gunners were beaten 1-0 by Chelsea last time out, they have never before lost their first two WSL away games of a calendar year. Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last seven league visits to the North West (W4 D3).

Renee Slegers' side have the lowest expected goals against (xGA) in the division this season (9.7), though they did face 21 shots and nine shots on target against Chelsea, with the latter figure the most they had faced since January 2018 (11 v Chelsea).  

BRIGHTON V CRYSTAL PALACE

Brighton's top-three ambitions were dealt a blow as they fell to a 3-0 defeat to a resurgent United side last time out, but they will have confidence of getting their season back on track when they come up against bottom club Crystal Palace. 

In fact, the Opta supercomputer handed the Seagulls a 54.4% chance of winning across its data-led match simulations. Just a second win of the season for Palace is given just a 22.2% probability of happening, while a draw is a 23.5% shot.

Brighton have won each of their last three WSL games against newly promoted opposition, while their last five such matches have seen 25 total goals (15 for, 10 against).  

Furthermore, they are also unbeaten in their six WSL home games this season (W4 D2), with only Chelsea (W9) on a longer streak without defeat on home turf in the competition.

And should Brighton win this weekend (P12 – W5 D2 L5 – 17 pts) they will surpass their total points tally and total number of wins from the whole of the 2023-24 WSL campaign (P22 W5 D4 L13 – 19 pts).

Palace showed promise in their 3-2 defeat to Tottenham, only denied a point by a wonderful Olivia Holdt free-kick in second-half stoppage time. 

But they have now lost each of their last five WSL games, the longest losing run by a team in the top flight this season. That is despite scoring twice in three of those losses, with the Eagles the team to suffer the most defeats when scoring multiple goals this term (three).

Sunday's visitors are also just the 10th team to record five or fewer points from their opening 12 games of a WSL campaign, with seven of the previous nine going on to be relegated, including newly promoted Bristol City last season (also five points).

EVERTON V LEICESTER CITY

Another struggling side, Leicester City, came from a goal behind to beat Liverpool 2-1 last time out, a result that saw them move four points clear of Palace at the bottom of the standings, with Sunday's opponents Everton now in their sights. 

The Toffees, meanwhile, are now two WSL games without a win after losing 2-0 to West Ham in their previous league fixture, a game in which they managed to register an expected goals (xG) total of 2.19 from 17 shots without hitting the net.

It's a clash that could have huge implications for each club's respective seasons, with both knowing a victory at Walton Hall Park will give them clear daylight at the bottom of the table, but the Opta supercomputer sees only one winner. 

The data-led simulations handed Everton a 54.3% win probability, while a draw was given a 23.5% chance of happening. Leicester, meanwhile, emerged victorious in just 22.2% of those simulations. 

That could be down to Brian Sorensen's impressive home record this season. Everton are unbeaten in their last three WSL home games (W2 D1), last going four without defeat on home turf in the competition in November 2020.

But they have struggled against Leicester in recent meetings, with the Foxes winning each of their last three WSL games against Everton by a 1-0 scoreline. No team has ever won four straight matches in the competition against an opponent by the same exact scoreline.

LIVERPOOL V WEST HAM

Two sides separated by just a point go head-to-head at St Helens Stadium, with Liverpool looking for a response after their shock defeat to Leicester, when they host West Ham. 

After a strong start to the season, Matt Beard's side have struggled in recent weeks. In fact, the Reds have lost five of their last six WSL matches (W1), as many defeats as they suffered across their previous 25 league games (W12 D8 L5). The Reds have already lost more league games in 2024-25 (six) than they did across the whole of last term (five).

Their struggles have seemingly come at the top end of the pitch. Liverpool had 74 shots and scored nine times across their first six WSL games this season to give them a 12% conversion rate. However, the Reds have since converted just 5% of their 61 shots in their most recent six league matches (three goals).

But they will be confident of closing the gap to Tottenham in the standings, having gone unbeaten in all four of their WSL home games against West Ham (W3 D1), the most they have played an opponent on home soil without losing. 

West Ham, however, will have something to say about that. They beat Everton 2-0 last time out to continue their revival. After going 15 WSL games without a win between February and November 2024 (D6 L9), the Hammers have since won three of their last six league matches (L3). 

But what does the Opta supercomputer predict will happen? It hands Liverpool a 61.2% chance of victory, while West Ham's hopes are placed at 18.4%. A draw is given a 20.4% probability.

ASTON VILLA V CHELSEA

Sonia Bompastor's Chelsea continued to fly high at the WSL summit after edging past Arsenal last week, thanks to a late penalty from substitute Guro Reiten. 

The Blues (P12 W11 D1) remain one of three teams still unbeaten across Europe’s big five leagues this season alongside Liga F’s Barcelona (P16 W16) and Premiere Ligue’s Lyon (P13 W12 D1) – five of the six WSL teams to be unbeaten after 12 games of a campaign have gone on to win the title (Man City in 2018-19 finished 2nd).

And up next are Aston Villa, a side they have won all nine of their previous WSL meetings against by an aggregate score of 24-1. Only Arsenal (13 out of 13 v Brighton) and the Blues themselves (10 out of 10 v Spurs) have a better 100% win rate against an opponent in the competition.   

Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are backed by the Opta supercomputer. They won 79.4% of the data-led simulations, the highest of any WSL side this weekend. An unlikely Villa victory is given a 9% chance, while a stalemate is at 11.6%. 

It is the second time in as many weeks that Villa will come up against a title hopeful, having lost 4-2 to Man City last time out. They have, however, scored eight goals across their last three WSL home games (W2 L1), netting multiple goals in three straight matches on home turf for the very first time.

Only FC Como (15) have dropped more points from leading positions in Europe’s big five leagues this season than Villa (13 – level with Espanyol), who could take the lead in four consecutive WSL games for the first time since October 2023.  

TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED

The weekend's action concludes at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Manchester United hoping to close the gap to leaders Chelsea when they take on Spurs. 

United have been in imperious form under Marc Skinner, with their win over Brighton last time out their fourth consecutive victory in the WSL, their best winning run in a top-flight campaign since their final seven matches of the 2022-23 season.

The Red Devils have also scored in all 11 of their WSL games against Tottenham, while also keeping seven clean sheets (F29 A5), though they will have to be on top form to stop one of Spurs' leading attacking threats. 

During Tottenham's 3-2 win over Crystal Palace, Beth England's brace saw her become the first player to score against each club that has featured in England’s top flight (19) since it was rebranded in 2011. 

Her double moved her to 81 goals in the competition, three behind the WSL’s all-time leading goalscorer Vivianne Miedema, who maintained her grip on the title by firing home twice against Villa to extend her total to 84.

Heading home with both efforts against Palace, Beth also moves her on level terms with Man City’s Khadija Shaw (24) for the most headed goals in WSL history.

But the Opta supercomputer hands Tottenham just a 21.3% chance of emerging victorious, with the chances of a draw slightly higher at 21.7%. United, meanwhile, won 57.1% of the data-led simulations.