The Numbers Game: Can Real Madrid join exclusive comeback club against Arsenal?

There have been 47 instances of a team taking a lead of at least three goals into the second leg of a Champions League knockout tie, and only four of those teams have been eliminated.

So, the omens are good for Arsenal as they travel to the Santiago Bernabeu to face Real Madrid, hoping to reach their first Champions League semi-final since 2009.

Los Blancos have become famed for their European fightbacks, pulling off a great escape to beat Bayern Munich en route to winning their 15th continental crown last year, having done likewise against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City in 2021-22.

But after two Declan Rice free-kicks helped Arsenal to a 3-0 victory in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium last week, Carlo Ancelotti's men need their best comeback yet.

Do they have it in them to book a fifth straight semi-final appearance and end Mikel Arteta's dreams of silverware in the process? 

Ahead of Wednesday's decisive second leg, we run through the best Opta facts and stats and check in on the Opta supercomputer's prediction for the tie.

What's expected?

Arsenal fans might not be breathing easily yet, but the Opta supercomputer is firmly on their side when it comes to the overall winner of the tie.

The Gunners reach the Champions League semi-finals in 92% of tournament simulations, with Madrid only doing so in 8%.

That is despite Madrid being assigned a 54.8% chance of victory in Wednesday's match, with Arsenal winning in 21.6% of the simulations and 23.6% being drawn.

Arsenal have a fantastic record against the Spanish giants, remaining unbeaten against them in three meetings (two wins, one draw) and not conceding a single goal.

They could become the first team to ever keep four consecutive clean sheets against Madrid in the European Cup/Champions League, having beaten them 1-0 on aggregate in the last 16 of the 2005-06 edition, via a Thierry Henry goal at the Bernabeu.

Arsenal went on to reach the final that year, going down to Barcelona in Paris.

Across the 53 previous games that Madrid have played against English sides in the European Cup/Champions League, they have only managed to win by more than three goals on two occasions.

They beat Derby County 5-1 in the round of 16 in 1975-76 and Tottenham 4-0 in the 2010-11 quarter-finals.

Madrid need a miracle

That aforementioned victory over Derby represents the only time Madrid have ever overturned a three-goal deficit after the first leg of a European Cup/Champions League tie.

After losing 4-1 at the Baseball Ground, Los Blancos surged into the quarter-finals with a memorable home victory. 

Having gone 3-0 down, Derby edged back into an aggregate lead through Charlie George's goal, but a late penalty from Pirri sent the tie to extra time, in which Santillana got the winner.

Madrid have tried and failed to overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit in Europe's premier club competition on three other occasions. 

And since the Champions League's rebrand, only Deportivo La Coruna (versus AC Milan in 2003-04), Barcelona (against PSG 2016-17), Roma (against Barca in 2017-18) and Liverpool (also against Barca in 2018-19) have overturned a 3-0 first-leg deficit to win a knockout tie.

If reports from Spain are to be believed, Ancelotti's job is under serious threat, and only an epic fightback will be enough to give him a chance of leading Madrid next season.

But as midfielder Jude Bellingham told TNT Sports after full-time last week: "If there's one place where crazy things happen, it's our house."

This will be the 16th time since the start of 2015-16 that Madrid have played the second leg of a Champions League knockout tie at home, and they have only been eliminated once in the previous 15, going out to Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19.

They certainly have the firepower to make things nervy for Arsenal.

Vinicius Junior was scarcely involved in the first leg, but he is one Champions League goal involvement from reaching his half-century (currently 49 – 28 goals, 21 assists). 

He could become the fourth Madrid player to bring up that figure, after Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Raul, which would be at least twice as many as any other club.

The winger, who has scored seven goals and set up a further two in Europe this term, is also on the verge of becoming only the second Madrid player, after Ronaldo, to record 10+ goal contributions in four straight Champions League campaigns.

Ronaldo did so in eight straight seasons in the competition, while Vinicius is currently tied with Raul and Benzema on three.

And fellow attacker Kylian Mbappe, who was sent off for a horror challenge on Alaves' Antonio Blanco on Sunday, has been involved in eight goals in eight knockout-stage games against English teams in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist).

That figure includes five in four games at the Bernabeu (four goals, one assist), among them a hat-trick in February's play-off victory over Manchester City.

Arsenal cannot rest just yet.

Gunners to hunt killer goal?

Arsenal's first-leg victory was the 12th time an English side had won by three or more goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, with none of those leads ever being overturned.

But the Gunners would be wise to avoid any complacency at the Bernabeu, where it often feels as though the sheer weight of history can suck the ball into the visitors' net.

Arteta's side have a tremendous defensive record this season, only conceding 0.55 goals per game in the Champions League. Only in 2005-06, when they reached the final, have they conceded fewer (0.31).

But it could just be that attack is the best form of defence for the Gunners, as their 2.55 goals per game in the Champions League is also their second-best figure in a single edition (after 2.63 in 2005-06).

In the first leg, Arsenal were just too dynamic for their opponents, with Bukayo Saka beating David Alaba time and again while Rice dominated in midfield.

Despite having more possession, with a 53.4% share, Arsenal made 115 high-intensity pressures in the final third last Tuesday. 

That was more than three times as many as Madrid managed, with Los Blancos' tally of 36 representing the fewest of any team involved in this season's quarter-final first legs.

Madrid will also be without one of their most physically gifted players after Eduardo Camavinga was sent off for kicking the ball away in stoppage time last week.

Camavinga's impressive tackle success rate of 80.77% (21/25) is the best of any player to attempt at least 20 tackles in the Champions League this season. If Arteta is bold with his approach again, Arsenal may be rewarded.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Real Madrid – Jude Bellingham

Just missing out on the top 10 for tackle success rate is Madrid's Bellingham (72%, 18.25). Though more famed for his contributions in attack, the England international may need to show his combative side against Rice and company.

Florian Wirtz and Michael Olise (both seven) are the only midfielders with more Champions League goal involvements than Bellingham's six this term, and he relishes these big occasions.

If Madrid are to complete the miraculous, then expect Bellingham to play a big part.

Arsenal – Myles Lewis-Skelly 

In the first leg, Lewis-Skelly became just the third English teenager to assist a goal in a Champions League knockout-stage match. 

All three of those have done so while playing for Arsenal, with the others being Theo Walcott in 2008 (versus Milan and Liverpool) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in 2012 (also against Milan).

Lewis-Skelly will surely face more of a test at the other end, too, with Madrid's right winger Rodrygo kept quiet in north London. That duel could be key to deciding the outcome, as Arsenal aim to take a huge stride towards potential European glory.