The Numbers Game: Liverpool and Arsenal look to bounce back

Around the midway point in the Premier League season, it looked like this match between Liverpool and Arsenal could be a title decider.

But things did not quite go to plan for Mikel Arteta's side as Liverpool stormed to the title, leaving Arsenal in their wake.

The Gunners have stalled in recent weeks, with a Champions League semi-final exit at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday ending their last hopes of a trophy.

And on Sunday, they will be faced with giving a guard of honour to the Reds, having missed out on the Premier League trophy for a third consecutive season.

They are still yet to secure second place, with a pack of teams chasing Champions League qualification starting to close in below them.

Meanwhile, Liverpool made a stumbling start to life as champions, with a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge putting a bit of a dampener on the start of their parade.

It was just their third loss all season, though only one of those came at home, and Arne Slot's side will now make a welcome return to Anfield, two weeks on from wrapping up the title against Tottenham.

With both teams attempting to get their rhythm back for the final games of the season, we delve into the best Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.

What's expected?

The last time these sides met in the Premier League back in October, just four points separated them in the table. Now, Liverpool have a whopping 15-point lead over the Gunners.

That match finished 2-2, with Mohamed Salah proving Liverpool's saviour as he helped them fight back to salvage the draw.

It was a result that stretched Arsenal's unbeaten run versus Liverpool to five Premier League games (W2 D3).

It is their longest run without defeat against Liverpool since a run of eight between October 2007 and April 2011.

However, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 home games against Arsenal in all competitions (W7 D7) since a 2-0 loss in the Premier League in September 2012.

And they are expected to continue that streak with a win on Sunday, as the Opta supercomputer gives them a 46.1% chance of victory.

Arsenal's chances, meanwhile, sit at 28.2%, while the points are shared in the remaining 25.8% of pre-match simulations.

Champions looking to find groove again

From the high of thrashing Spurs to claim their 20th top-flight title, Liverpool were brought back down to earth quickly by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

They became just the fourth team to lose their first league game after they were crowned Premier League champions, doing so for the second time, having also lost to Arsenal in 2019-20.

Only two teams have lost both of their next two Premier League games in a season after already confirming the title - Arsenal in 1997-98 and Chelsea in 2005-06.

However, in a boost for the Reds, they are back on home soil on Sunday, where they have lost just once all season - a 1-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest back in September.

Overall, Liverpool have earned 44 points at Anfield in the Premier League this term, winning 14 of their 17 matches there so far.

Against Chelsea, and Fulham in their other recent defeat, Liverpool showed some uncharacteristic shakiness, which Slot will look to rectify this weekend.

Liverpool have scored an own goal in two of their last four Premier League games, as many times as they did across their 87 league matches prior (Jarell Quansah against Chelsea and Andy Robertson versus West Ham).

Virgil van Dijk, who played an unfortunate part in both of those goals, will be the one looking to marshal his defence, but he can play just as big a part at the other end, as he showed against Chelsea by scoring Liverpool's only goal of the game.

Only John Terry (19) and Dion Dublin (14) have scored more headed goals from corners in Premier League history than Van Dijk (13). In fact, the Liverpool captain is the top-scoring defender in the competition since his first full season with the Reds in 2018-19 (21).

And if he plays on Sunday, it will be his 300th Premier League appearance. He would be the fourth Dutchman to reach this milestone, after George Boateng (384), Dennis Bergkamp (315) and Edwin van der Sar (313).

He will certainly not want to mark that landmark with another defeat, and Liverpool are sure to give Arsenal a run for their money in front of the Anfield faithful.

Can Arteta change Arsenal's fortunes?

Given their run in recent weeks, the last team Arsenal would have wanted to face this weekend is the newly crowned champions.

Their 2-1 second-leg loss to PSG on Wednesday was a third consecutive defeat for Arsenal in all competitions, but there were positive signs for Arteta in Paris.

They created 3.1 expected goals (xG), while they had 19 shots, their most in a single match in the Champions League since March 2016 (20 versus Barcelona).

Arsenal have struggled in the Premier League recently, though, winning just one of their last five in the competition (D2 L2).

They lost 2-1 to Bournemouth last time out despite taking the lead. In fact, they have dropped 21 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their joint-most in a single campaign (also 2019-20).

And, for all the plaudits they received for their impressive scoring record from set-pieces earlier this season, they have been caught out by them at the other end.

39% of Arsenal's goals conceded in the Premier League this season have come from set-piece situations (12/31, excluding penalties), the highest share of any side.

Despite all of that, Arteta's side have not lost consecutive top-flight matches since December 2023, but even still, too many draws have cost them this term, recording 13 in the Premier League.

But Arsenal have form for earning results against already-crowned Premier League champions, previously drawing 1-1 with Manchester United in 2012-13 and beating Liverpool 2-1 in 2019-20.

The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a 79% chance of finishing second come the end of the season on May 25, and they know a win over Liverpool will see them take a big step towards holding onto their current position.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Salah has scored 11 Premier League goals against Arsenal, only netting more against Man Utd (13) and Tottenham (12).

In fact, his first-ever goal in the competition came against the Gunners in a 6-0 win for Chelsea in March 2014.

He has been involved in 46 goals so far this season, so if he does score or assist against the Gunners, he will equal Andrew Cole (1993-94) and Alan Shearer's (1994-95) joint record for the most goal involvements in a single season.

Against Spurs, Salah netted his 183rd goal for Liverpool. Only Harry Kane (213 for Tottenham) and Sergio Aguero (184 for Manchester City) have scored more goals for a single Premier League club than him (level with Wayne Rooney for Man Utd).

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Bukayo Saka has scored four goals in his last five Premier League games against Liverpool - against no other side has he scored more often in the league.

However, all four of his strikes against them have come at the Emirates Stadium.

He comes into this game having attempted to start Arsenal's late fightback against PSG on Wednesday, netting their only goal of the semi-final tie.

It was his 10th Champions League goal in his 18th appearance in the competition - the only Englishman to hit that tally sooner was Harry Kane (12 games).