Women's Super League predictions: Can Chelsea stay invincible?

The final day of the Women's Super League is here, with the title, the Champions League qualifiers and relegation already decided.

Chelsea have retained their crown for a sixth straight season and Crystal Palace are Championship-bound – to be replaced by London City Lionesses – while Manchester United clinched the third Champions League place last week.

While a thrilling comeback win over rivals Manchester City sealed the Red Devils' top-three place, they could still overtake Arsenal and finish as runners-up for just the second time. Marc Skinner's side face the Gunners at the Emirates on Saturday, while Man City take on relegated Palace at the Joie Stadium.

The other four games all have a bearing on the race for a top-half finish, with West Ham, Everton and Aston Villa all hoping to overhaul Liverpool and snatch sixth place.

And there could be history made at Stamford Bridge, as Sonia Bompastor's Chelsea bid to complete the first unbeaten 22-game campaign in WSL history.

Chelsea's main focus is on sealing a domestic treble that is still within their sights, with the FA Cup final to come next week, but they will not want to let their 'Invincible' tag slip at the final hurdle.

For the final time in 2024-25, we consult the Opta supercomputer to get its pre-match predictions for all six contests.

ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED

At various stages of the campaign, both Arsenal and United have harboured hopes of ending Chelsea's spell of dominance over the WSL. 

However, Saturday's clash at the Emirates will now effectively be a play-off for second place, with the Gunners currently holding a one-point advantage and FA Cup finalists United needing a win to overhaul them.

Including the Spring Series, Arsenal have won their final WSL game of the season 11 times out of 14 campaigns (D2 L1), beating Brighton 5-0 last season at Meadow Park.

United, meanwhile, have lost their final game of the season in two of the last three WSL campaigns, losing 4-2 to Chelsea 2021-22 and 6-0 to the same opponents in 2023-24, with the latter representing their biggest ever WSL defeat.

Neither team approaches this one in sparkling form, with their respective drop-offs allowing Chelsea to streak clear. Arsenal have lost back-to-back WSL matches, suffering as many defeats as they did in their previous 25 games combined, and are now in danger of losing three in a row in the same league campaign for the first time since May 2014.

United, meanwhile, are winless in their last three WSL games (D2 L1), last going longer without victory in the league in November 2021, enduring a run of four (D3 L1) with the fourth game being a 2-0 loss to Arsenal.

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to finish as runners-up, with Renee Slegers' side having a 53.5% chance of victory and a 23.9% likelihood of earning a draw, as they continue to build towards their Champions League final date with Barcelona.

ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON

Brighton are – barring a defeat and a 10-goal swing towards Liverpool on the final day – set to finish fifth, their best-ever position in the WSL.

Dario Vidosic's team have overcome a mid-season wobble, winning their last two WSL matches, as many victories as they managed in their previous 13. They have not won three in a row since November 2021 under Hope Powell.

Villa, meanwhile, are among a host of teams hoping to finish sixth, though they are currently outsiders for that position.

Natalia Arroyo's team must beat Brighton, hope Liverpool lose to Chelsea and neither West Ham nor Everton win elsewhere on Saturday, if they are to better last season's seventh-place finish.

Villa likely do not want 2024-25 to end. They scored 16 goals in their first 17 WSL games this season but have since netted 13 times in four matches – the Villans have also conceded twice in each of their last three WSL games, becoming the first team to win three successive top-flight matches while also conceding two or more goals in each.

The Opta supercomputer gives the hosts a 50.6% chance of success at Villa Park, with Brighton only victorious in 24.4% of pre-match simulations.

CHELSEA V LIVERPOOL

Liverpool are the team currently occupying sixth place, but they may need to win at the home of the unbeaten WSL champions to hold on to that position, given their goal difference is significantly worse than those of West Ham and Everton.

The Reds won their first two league games under interim manager Amber Whiteley but have since tasted victory in just one of five WSL matches (D1 L3). They have, however, won two of three away matches under the Englishwoman.

Liverpool were narrowly beaten by Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-finals last month, going down to a 94th-minute goal from England's Aggie Beever-Jones.

In the WSL, Liverpool lost nine straight meetings with Chelsea between 2015 and 2019, but they have since won two of six WSL games against the Blues (D1 L3).

Bompastor's team may have the title sewn up and one eye on next week's FA Cup final versus Man Utd, but they have plenty to play for here as they chase a place in the record books.

Chelsea (W18 D3) are aiming to become the first team to record an invincible season in a 22-game WSL campaign.

Excluding the Spring Series and the curtailed 2019-20 campaign, this would be the fourth time a team has gone a full WSL season without suffering defeat, after Arsenal in 2012 (W10 D4), Manchester City in 2016 (W13 D3) and Chelsea themselves in 2017-18 (W13 D5).

Liverpool are only given an 8.2% chance of ruining Chelsea's unblemished record, with the champions finishing with a victory in 79.2% of scenarios and with a draw in 12.7%.

EVERTON V TOTTENHAM

Everton enter matchday 22 two points behind Liverpool with a superior goal difference and host a Tottenham team with little to play for, and the supercomputer makes them second favourites to finish sixth.

The Toffees make the top half in 29.9% of the supercomputer's final-day simulations, compared to 32.6% for West Ham, 23.3% for Liverpool and 14.2% for Villa.

And Everton are unbeaten at home against Tottenham in the WSL (W3 D2), with both teams scoring in four of those matches.

Spurs – who could climb one place to ninth or drop one to 11th – are, however, the only team to have never lost their final game of the season in the WSL, winning three of four such matches (D1 – excluding curtailed 2019-20 season).

The supercomputer thinks that record could be snapped here, though. Everton are given a 46.6% chance of victory to Tottenham's 26.9%, with 26.5% of simulations being drawn.

LEICESTER CITY V WEST HAM

West Ham are the first in the queue for sixth should Liverpool slip up, but only Reading (D2 L5) have competed in more WSL campaigns without ever winning on the final day than the Hammers (D1 L4).

However, Rehanne Skinner's team won 7-1 at Crystal Palace in their last WSL away game, their first win on the road in the competition since January 2024. They last won consecutive away league games in the same campaign in April 2022.

West Ham tend to struggle at the tail-end of the campaign, though. They suffered a 3-2 defeat to Aston Villa on matchday 21 and have now won just one of their 12 WSL games played in the month of May (D3 L8).

That victory, however, was a 2-1 win over Leicester in 2023. And with the Foxes failing to score in a league-high 10 games this season, the visitors will fancy their chances.

They won in 40% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations, with Leicester winning in 34.2% and the remaining 25.8% being drawn.

MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE

The only game featuring two teams whose final positions are set in stone comes at the Joie Stadium, as fourth-placed Man City face relegated Palace.

This is just the third time City have finished outside of the top three positions in the WSL, after 2014 (5th) and 2022-23 (4th).

However, the hosts will be supremely confident of ending an underwhelming campaign on a high. City have won 24 of their 25 WSL games against promoted opposition, with the exception being a 2-1 away loss to Liverpool in May 2023.

Including the Spring Series, City also have the best win rate in final-day fixtures in WSL history, winning eight of 10 games (80%, D1 L1) including each of their last four.

Palace, on the other hand, have won just 10 points from 21 league games this season with their points-per-game ratio of 0.48 currently the second-worst by a team in their WSL debut season, ahead only of Yeovil Town in the 2017 Spring Series (0.13).

It is no surprise, then, that Nick Cushing's team are the most heavily fancied favourite on Saturday. The supercomputer assigns them an 87.4% chance of victory to Palace's 4.5%.